What are expectations of alternative energy??

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Good AM everyone, hope you all have a glorious day. We're gonna get snowed on again, which makes me happy. We could have the greatest wheat crop in the history of Eldorado Township well on its way.
I assume we all believe that alternative forms of energy will play a larger role in the future.
My question is; what do folks figure that the USA standard of living will look like as alternatives start to compete with petro?
What will discretionary incomes in America come to given a scenario which we rely heavily on alternatives?
Should the government mandate and subsidize alternatives such as wind, solar, and coal-to-liquids etc?
I doubt folks will like my opinion to the above questions.
Thanks! [8D]
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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This country needs to become energy independent and we need to give ourselves a timeline. For example, if we said we would become energy independent by 2025, the economy would actaully grow by building these facilities. There are some in this country (i.e. Obama and McCain) who want to keep giving money to the oil lords of the Mid-East.
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I apologize for saying this Mr. Dungbeetle, I'm sure you are a nice guy, but US energy independance is utterly and completely impossible to many orders of magnitude beyond physical constraints of our resources.
Unless of course we turn to the bicycle.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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Rained out again, WOOHOO!!
I feel like a JACKASS. Since I read, "The Oil Factor" Stephan Leebs in 2004 and focused on energy investing, I cheerleaded for higher energy prices. Why not, that's where I placed my bets.
If I had one wish, it'd be for alternative energy to allow us to continue life as we know it.
I don't mind chopping firewood etc. We all have "That Neighbor", you know the one, the old batchelor who hasn't yet joined the 20th century. Well, we could get along fine if we lived like him.
My neighbors are broke. Heating bills this last year whacked them. They all took out loans to pay propane, or just didn't pay. Next year it will be double.
Just 2 years ago I called some friends on a calm day to hit the lake. The told the boss and we partied on a Tuesday. Now, the boss looks for a reason to cut them. People suck up to their boss more than they used to.
Its NOT cool to have wealth when your friends are down and out.
Nuffield says it best, 'The more you know, the lonlier you get.'
Anyway, I apologize to the world for trumpeting the greatness of high priced energy.
The sad thing is; all the alternatives are a crock. Its not due to a lack of technology. If you have enough platinum, copper, silver, zinc, and electrical engineers, you can do anything. Ultimately though, electrical engineers need material that conducts juice.
There are absolutely NO solutions to this problem. Accept maybe microbes that decompose stuff into liquid fuel, simply cuz there are no geological restraints on microbes. Microbiologists are our only hope, and nobody is working on this to any degree.
Why nuclear is another false panacea;
From ABC Science;
"Australian researchers writing in the journal Environmental Science and Technology say that the average grade of the uranium extracted from mines around the world has gradually declined over the past 50 years.
That trend is likely to continue, says lead author Dr Gavin Mudd from Melbourne's Monash University.
This means mining companies will have to use more energy and more water to extract the ore and process it for use in power stations.
"Ore grade is one of the most sensitive predictors of carbon and water cost," Mudd says. "It's pretty clear that in the long term, the ore grade will decline."
Mudd and his co-author Dr Mark Diesendorf from the University of New South Wales in Sydney gathered data from government publications, company reports and other sources from the US, Canada, Australia and elsewhere. The earliest documents date from the late 1940s.
They then charted the average ore grade over time, and the amount of energy and water needed to produce a set amount of uranium oxide."
Source - http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/04/30/2231486.htm?site=science&topic=latest
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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Craig Venter
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/02/craig-venter-fuel-co2-ted-conference.php
"Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
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My HOPES for alternative energy.
Plentiful, relatively cheap, environmentally friendly, and secure.
Awwwww that's right OBG asked for expectations.
Wellll let me think more about that.
"Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
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OBG, I think we will one day be energy independent, or nearly so, might import some from our close, friendly neighbors. It will be achieved with nuclear power. All cars and buses in the big cities will be electric. Homes will be much better insulated and heated mostly by solar---panels and batteries.
Do I favor government subsides for alternatives? I think it will be a necessary evil. Many of the things we enjoy today we wouldn't have if not for government subsides. I hate them. The money gets dealt to the ones that buy the votes for politicians but hey, that is the American way, and it has worked pretty well for the past 230 years.
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quote:
Originally posted by OBG
[br]Good AM everyone, hope you all have a glorious day. We're gonna get snowed on again, which makes me happy. We could have the greatest wheat crop in the history of Eldorado Township well on its way.
I assume we all believe that alternative forms of energy will play a larger role in the future.
My question is; what do folks figure that the USA standard of living will look like as alternatives start to compete with petro?
What will discretionary incomes in America come to given a scenario which we rely heavily on alternatives?
Should the government mandate and subsidize alternatives such as wind, solar, and coal-to-liquids etc?
I doubt folks will like my opinion to the above questions.
Thanks! [8D]
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
Hello obg better be careful one of the problems with thinking your the smartest person around is that when you can't see and answer to the problem you don't think anybody else can. d;-)
the world has faced major energy scares before and smart people have figured out new energy sources.
btw How much do you know about oil production in Prudhom Bay in Alaska had a talk with a guy that did some subcontracting on the pipline back when it was built and also ran a few drilling rigs on the west half of the bay, was interesting he was back up there about 20 months ago he is now putting some things in place in the Mesabe Iron range over here in Minnesota you might be surprised what they are going to mine out of that baby.


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Bigdog,
I'm probably the dumbest person on this board, and can site evidence to prove it. I once made a homemade parachute, when I was 10 years old and stood at the top of the 33 ft tall barn and looked down. I became afraid I might not come down, that the parachute would just float me away. Hence I attached disk blades to my legs and climbed back up. After jumping off the edge, confident I would not float away, I broke both legs.
Prudhoe Bay. I'd say within 3 years the pipeline will cease to operate because the flow rate is set to drop below 250,000 barrels per day. Its only 300,000 bpd now after 1.5 mbpd in 1988.
Anyway every year it produces less, just like almost all the other big fields in the world. If flow rates drop below 250,000 bpd, the oil will not go over the Brooks range without coagulating.
Bringing on ANWR, could have prevented this calamity, but its too late now. It takes 8 years for Anwr oil to flow after initial exploration, and the Alaskan pipeline will be done in three.
Of course in 3 years we will be in chaos anyway.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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obg it is a good thing too you might have floated away.... I think the disc blade prolly saved you.
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Hybrid Electric cars are another non-starter that will never amount to diddly squat.
The copper content of the Prius is 40 times higher than a normal car. GM's Volt has 90 times higher copper content than a normal car.
Copper is a resource diminishing faster than oil. Remaining copper mines are mainly in politicallly unstable areas.
Nuclear can't provide power for the Volt, for the uranium resource limits outlined above.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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This site takes you to the world population counter. You can literally watch the world population increase. Just like the national debt counters we've all seen.
We can feed em all if we have enough copper, silver, molybdenum, oil, etc. Too bad there isn't much left of any of them.
http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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OBG: Hi buddy! If you really believe all the hopelessness that you have posted, then it's a good thing us country boys can survive. lol. Best.
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Hey 48 my friend. I'm just in a weird funk today is all, 3 feet of snow and I-90 closed. Cabin fever. We will have the greatest year ever around here. Al Gore is so wrong. Thanks man.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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It's taken us 120 years to get into this mess. The sooner we get started the sooner we will will get to the light at the end of the tunnel. The cure will not be only one thing but many. We need to get past the Robert Kennedy Jr.s, Al Gore, Jimmy Carter types and get on with this. The goverment only redistributes money (may I add very ineficiently) the wealth of this nation was and is still created by the people who get up and get with it. Those who say it cannot be done shouldn't interrupt the people who are doing it. In other words: lead-follow-or get the he!! outta the way!
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GM is betting on electric propulsion.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134021
"Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
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I think electric will play a big roll in alternative energy. All you need to produce electricity is heat and water. You can warm water with the sun, remember frying an ant with a magnifying glass, slap one of those babies on a huge water tank to make steam. Once you have steam you have power, then all you have to do is figure out how to get it to a wheel.
I can hear the environmentalist now, you capitalist are hogging all of the sun to produce energy and now the poor of the world are going to freeze to death. There is now not enough heat to produce crops and if they don't freeze they will starve.
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GM is also hedging their bets with hydrogen. Already have vehicles on the road in consumers hands. Hydrogen is fairly easily made, I remember making it in high school physics class. It is much safer than gasoline, propane, or natural gas, also is very clean burning. Hydrogen is two thirds of water, can be stripped from all fossel fuels and biomass sources. Electicity from wind and solar can be converted to hydrogen and more easily and in greater quanities stored than in batteries.
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I wish it were that easy and if that case will already be employed. Oil has been cheap and provided way too easy of a lifestyle enjoyed by N. America than anyother part of the world until the last 60 by W. Europe. I agree that we need to develop alternative fuels but nothing like we have enjoyed. Twenty five years ago I had a friend who invested a lot of money in technology to no avail. I have another friend who owns Comp Cams and he said the large automakers are spend a lot trying to develop the technology. In the event it is developed it will be more for mass transit and more public forms of transportation. Our lifestyles are going to change. I have decided I will attempt to see as much of the world as I can while I am able. I would suggest to all watching "A Crude Awakening." Please dispute the reality of the situation. Last night I went to a granddaughter's soccer game. I knew the person who owned the business was in poor health (extreme). My son in law had been offered the option to buy. He was the one responsible for resurrecting their road construction business. The son had left. Several years ago I was talking to my son in law and he saw the son wanted to come back in the business and be partners and my son in law said the only partner he has is his wife. The business is valued at $8 million taking into account depreciation of equipment and my son in law just garnered $5 million of new contracts. Their diesel bill is in excess of $70,000/mo. They have no clause of escalation for fuel increases. Tell me how known alternative fuels are going to power those machines. I am going to give Tommy the same dvd and suggest they engage in some hedging for expected usage for jobs.
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I too support solar and wind, but unfortunately the wind does not blow all of the time and it is dark at night. Back up energy output is required to supplement both solar and wind and that makes t expensive. That is why nuclear power and geothermal power are clearly superior. It is absolutely essential for use to begin building more nuclear plants immediately. The biggest problem we face is getting liquid fuels which will power our existing and most likely future transportation and power fleet. Ethanol and biodiesel won't get it done. That is why drilling in ANWR, offshore, and in national parks ansd wilderness area will be essential. The longer we dilly dally the worse things will get. In some respects I want either Obama or Hillary to win the White House this year so the problem will be theirs to fix. Maybe then they will do what is required rather than blocking what McCain wants to do.
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I liked mfsman's post above. He understands the sheer utter impossibility of replacing oil and still conducting life as we know it.
A person does need to enjoy life now while we can.
Hydrogen is a joke for 2 reasons;
1) Takes lots of platinum to build necesary components for an efficient fuel cell. South Africa demonstrated last Jan what happens to platinum availability once fuel becomes scarce. You can no longer mine it. Without the platform of cheap available fossil fuels, going alternative becomes impossible.
2) Energy Return on Energy Investment of hydrogen is negative. Cracking water takes lots and lots of electricity to give up a little hydrogen. Its a waste of precious electricity.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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Forget that crap Beaner. IN primary is Tuesday. All we see is "I approve this message." Their fix for energy, "Let's investigate big oil for price gouging." "Let's tax big oil and use the money for alternative energy." "Let's force big oil to fund alternative energy."
You can't force the oil companies to fund the very source of energy that will put them out of business. Big oil has been investigated to no end for price gouging and yet they have never been charged. Hillary Clinton even said we need to file lawsuits against OPEC for being a monopoly. This is what the left has wanted for years, high energy prices so we quit destroying the planet. The left will never "fix" the problem because to them this is the fix.
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I think we need to consider the magnitude of the fuel we use before deducing what is next.
1) The world consumes 86 million barrels of oil per day.
2)That's 1,000 barrels per second.
3)42 gal per barrel.
4) 42,000 gallons will completely fill up an average house with oil.
5) Since you started reading this, every house in your entire neighborhood would not hold all the oil we consumed in that time. (At least if you read as slow as me.)
6) The human body takes in 2,000 calories, or about 500 BTU worth of energy per day. If we swung an axe all day, we might be 20% efficient convertors of energy.
7) A single gallon of oil contains 138,000 BTU, or the amount of energy we can output in a long, long time.
8) Oil is our slave. We have it easy because it works for us.
9) The one house per second of oil volume does NOT include consumption of coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, etc.
10) In the last 3 years, we've proved to ourselves that we cannot increase production above 86 mbpd. The new fields are high hanging fruit with a low energy return on energy investment.
How many more equivelants of houses were filled with oil since the start of this post?
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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whoa--you need to start l[8)][8)]king around. Do not discount hyrodgen so quickly there are many ways to use it, a fuel cell is only one of many. It would be a good way to store excess production from wind, hydroelectic, and solar for the times the wind doesn't blow, or the sun isn't shining. An added benifit is that all three mentioned sources are availible here. TIME TO THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX!!!!
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Yes there are many ways to use hydrogen.
There are also many ways to use electricity. Electricity is going to be very hard to come by. Silver/copper etc for wind turbines and solar panels are going to get much harder to come by.
Throwing away precious electricity on hydrogen is crazy.
Why? Because producing hydrogen is a deeply NEGATIVE energy return on energy investment. (EROEI)
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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The world's largest oil producer, Russia, is also the world's FASTEST growing consumer of oil.
Russia done picked all its low hanging fruit already.
Russian April Oil Output Falls to Lowest in 18 Months (Update1)
By Torrey Clark
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's second-largest oil supplier, produced the least amount of crude in 18 months in April as aging fields and rising costs threaten the country with the first annual decline in oil output in a decade.
Production dropped to 9.72 million barrels a day (39.8 million metric tons a month), 0.8 percent less than in April last year and only slightly higher than in October 2006, according to data released today by CDU TEK, the dispatch center for the Energy Ministry. Compared with March, output fell 0.4 percent.
Russia's output may have peaked as producers struggle with aging fields, rising costs and increasingly remote new deposits, Moscow-based OAO Lukoil and OAO TNK-BP, the country's two- biggest independent oil companies, said in April.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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Conservation is the key, the US can eliminate a large part of its consumption, which is the key.
Alternative sources are numerous, but gas for the most part is too cheap in the US to incite or encourge change. High gas prices will finally curtail consumption, and bring the alterntives to being.
People having to return to doing physical labor, walking, and working rather than machines, is actually going to be good for the nation.
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quote:
Originally posted by Iowa55
[br]It would be a good way to store excess production from wind, hydroelectic, and solar for the times the wind doesn't blow, or the sun isn't shining.


The problem with the concept of storing excess production from wind etc, is that on an aggregate basis, its IMPOSSIBLE to have excess production.
If one does the math on the number of wind turbines and solar panels required to offset say 5 million barrels of oil, (which is nothing) you'd need to cover Nevada with solar panels AND line the 100th meridian with wind turbines shoulder to shoulder.
Where are is all that silver/copper/platinum going to come from?????
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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mfsman the state of Nebraska just added 1 cent for roads to the existing gas tax. The governor vetoed it but I am sure it will be a successful over ride vote. What good business sense your son in-law has for not partnering up with the son. My brother in-law out in Barstow built a nothing beer distributorship into a multi-million dollar business and then the owner died the step son took over at the direction of the widowed new owner of the distributorship and the thing went straight down the tubes without out passing go. So they ended up with nothing but debt after inheriting a fortune. The people who want to sell to your son in-law are doing the right thing.
The thing is if he built the business they should treat him well.
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It's all about population growth. We're in a logrithmic growth curve in terms of human populaiton. There has to be a top. OBG thinks there will be a population reversal. I think he stands a very good chance of being correct. When populations outgrow their resources the resource almost always is degraded which makes a population reversal even more severe. Those of us who have managed native pastures understand this. Overuse them and then you could have several years where the utilization is even lower than it was initially.
The situation in which we find ourselves is unprecedented in human history. There is a lot of emperical data of other populations that logrithmic growh curves in population never end well. Maybe we're smarter than that but it doesn't look like it to me.
Most of you know that I now live in Phoenix. I marvel every day at the logistics of this place. Nearly EVERYTHING has to be brought in. Water, electricity, food, gasoline, etc, etc, etc. In my mind it's a 6 million head feedlot and I know how much it takes to keep a feedlot running. It amazes me every day. Just calculate how many semi loads of beer it takes to give everybody one beer! I figure that most of it has to be hauled in at least 500 miles.
Anyway I agree (largely) with OBG's dark musings. We all consider ourselves to be country boys who will survive BUT will we have the guts and the large pile of ammo to defend what we have if society disentegrates??
On to happier subjects!
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Beaner, I tend to agree with you as it a foregone conclusion the dems will gain a greater control of Congress. I think all hell will break out with Iran when that happens. They realize the dems do not have the stomach for real combat and conflict. When I was in Europe several weeks ago I asked a number of people both young and old how was Hitler elected? The younger people in a bar in Wurzburg like Obama. One was a political science and philosophy major at the University of Wurzburg. I asked him of his philosophy and desire for life? Do we want promises or "hope and opportunity" or freedom to do what is best for us? Hitler was elected on the basis of promising a false hope of society. He then muscled his way into power and subverted rights and freedom. This country is on the verge of civil discord. Too few are doing too much for too few who want more and it has to end. We are a compassionate people but we are not stupid. In the event the Dems are elected and respond as they typically do we will see a wave of resentment this country has never seen to condition. We are a country of faith and commitment and have more churches than gas stations. That kid in Germany did not know what to say. He at least realized the veracity of the question. He wants his rights. How many of us do?
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There is no question the globe is getting over-populated. Most of the population growth is occurring in poor nations like those in central America, the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Here in the U.S. a disproportionate share of the births are from the Latino pulation and from the African American community. There is little growth in population among "white" Americans, particularly higher income Americans. In some parts of the world the population actually is falling - Western Europe, Russia, Japan. If there is a global food shortage of dire proportions it will be the poorest nations which suffer the most and it will be there where wars will occur. Russia, in particular, has to be worried because it has a lot of resources, a declining population, and it borders some of the nations where population growth is fastest. It faces a major influx of people in the future whether it wants them or not. The U.S. will fare okay as long as we can afford the energy required to run our food production system.
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Beaner,
I've been thinking along thos same lines.
Winter is aproaching in Argentina and Peru, and more folks will die from freezing to death due to rolling blackouts this winter than last. Google - "South America natural gas shortage" you'll see what I'm refferring to.
Absolutely Russia must be nervous. As their natural gas production falls, its gonna kill many poor people in other countries.
I didn't know Russia is experiancing a pop decline. Inteeresting.
I think the wars we will soon see will be local between poor countries. When folks lose basic services and people watch their kids die, which they will, armies will march.
Canada will have it Made IN THE SHADE.
Canada is net exporters of both food and energy. That will be the key in the future.
Net importers of both food and energy will soon send armies marching. Maybe within a year.
How soon depends on Ghawar. I give it nine months.
What can we do to stay out of the resource wars???
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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OBG, Russia's population is projected to drop from 141.7 million in 2007 to 124.1 million in 2030 and to 109.2 million in 2050. By contrast Afghanistan's population is forecasted to grow from 31.9 million now to 56.3 million in 2030 and 81.9 million in 2050. These projections are from U.S. Census bureau and can be found for all countries at: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/
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Iran Doubles Oil Stored in Tankers, Bolstering Rates
By Alaric Nightingale
May 2 (Bloomberg) -- Iran, OPEC's second-largest oil producer, more than doubled the amount stored in tankers idling in the Persian Gulf, sending ship prices higher as demand for some of its crude fell, people familiar with the situation said.
The 10 tankers hold at least 20 million barrels of oil, equal to about 5 days of the country's output, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn't public. Rates for tankers have more than tripled since April 8, based on data from the Baltic Exchange and ship-fuel prices.
While oil rose to a record $119.93 a barrel on April 28, Iran has a glut of its sulfur-rich crude as refineries that can process the fuel shut down for maintenance. The discount on Iranian Heavy crude compared with Oman and Dubai petroleum has more than doubled since the start of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
``There's not much demand for heavier crudes such as those from Iran,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. ``It's the peak of the refinery maintenance season in Asia, and Iran also sells oil to Europe and the Mediterranean, where some refineries are having turnarounds,'' or seasonal shutdowns for repairs, he said.
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Gas to Liquid Fuels-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_to_liquids
Gas to liquids or GTL is a refinery process to convert natural gas or other gaseous hydrocarbons into longer-chain hydrocarbons. Methane-rich gases are converted into liquid fuels either via direct conversion or via syngas as an intermediate, for example using the Fischer Tropsch or Mobil process. Using such processes, refineries can convert some of their gaseous waste products into valuable fuel oils, which can be sold as or blended only with Diesel fuel. The process may also be used for the economic extraction of gas deposits in locations where it is not economical to build a pipeline. This process will be increasingly significant as crude oil resources are depleted, while natural gas supplies are projected to last into the 22nd century.
On November 22, 2007, the Dokter Wagemaker ferry, owned by Royal TESO was the first ship to be propelled by GTL diesels. On February 1st, 2008, the Airbus A380 was the first commercial jet airplane to fly with GTL-based fuel.
OBG- what is the potential of using this tech to process the gas from
smaller gas producing wells on site to make fluid transportation fuels?
"Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
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RE: Beaner;
I saw that Bloomberg article also. Isn't it nuts that so few refineries can crack heavy sour crude? The vast majority of the world's refineries can't touch the stuff.
A year ago I thought the refineries of the world would upgrade to unlock the cheaper crude grades. Again, I was wrong.
The Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of refining heavy sour crude is pathetic. Heavy Sour crudes are just too expensive relative to light sweet.
Check out Valero and Tesoro refining company stock prices. Horrible. The crack spread is wrecking refineries.
Point blank, there are TOO DANG MANY refineries.
Valero is looking to sell several US refineries, or just mothball them altogether. They must pay too much for crude, and can't get enough for products.
I would NEVER invest in a refinery, even one that could crack heavy sour grades.
The problem is a lack of stuff to refine. Oil refineries, ethanol plants, and biodiesel plants all have exactly the same problem, LACK OF FEEDSTOCK.
Overlay a chart of a public traded ethanol company and an oil refinery.
The world needs less refineries; petro or biofuel, subsidized or not. At least from the point of view of these entities.
There just isn't enough high EROEI stuff to refine.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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RE: Jabber,
I'm involved with a project converting stranded natural gas to NH3.
I honstly don't know how the EROEI of GTL compares to NH3 given small plants.
Most unconventional stranded nat gas fields have a low EROEI. Their flows collapse generally 60% just 36 months after initial production. Lots of drilling for a little gas.
It seems like a terrible waste to simply turn 10 BTUs of this nat gas into 3 BTUs of electricity.
It seems the sensible thing to do is to turn this nat gas into the most value added product available. Maybe its NH3, maybe its GTL.
"Install Gun Turrets on Grain Bins"
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