the end of ethanol

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An overstatement? Perhaps, but the cat is out of the bag...nobody can make any sustainable money in this mess. Even with the collapse in corn prices, crude oil's collapse is matching it...Eventually, the wobbly ethanol industry will find it difficult to produce enough to meet the mandate...then what? Is the government going to run these ethanol plants? The big shock will come when a state gets a waiver....at that point the house of cards will come tumbling down. This is what happens when you build an industry around government policy....there are consequences.
dec
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AUD imploding only good for Australia in the long run as it is underwriting real earnings from real production. Fertilizer? What do you think you are the only bloke in this world who can take money off the table. Any positions I still have are free carried and my costs are hedged for next year at 07 prices. Mission accomplished ... I never got greedy, just needy.
Why wouldn't I talk about the imploding US economy. Its a trainwreck that can only get much much worse especially for folk who do not contribute to its REAL productive base.
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuffield
[br]AUD imploding only good for Australia in the long run as it is underwriting real earnings from real production. Fertilizer? What do you think you are the only bloke in this world who can take money off the table. Any positions I still have are free carried and my costs are hedged for next year at 07 prices. Mission accomplished ... I never got greedy, just needy.
Why wouldn't I talk about the imploding US economy. Its a trainwreck that can only get much much worse especially for folk who do not contribute to its REAL productive base.
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!


Spoken like a true America hater and full of resentment. Sonny, you are completely full of s__t!
dec
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Now I've heard it all from your childish mouth Dec. Are you sure you are older than me? The only resentment I have, if any, is toward your ilk on Wall St. No problem with the average American because he is no different to the average Australia or the average Canadian. Have the utmost respect for American farmers ... so as I was saying ethanol is the least of your problems right now. You should be thankful it is leading to investment in the only sector of your economy that will generate significant export revenues.
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuffield
[br]Now I've heard it all from your childish mouth Dec. Are you sure you are older than me? The only resentment I have, if any, is toward your ilk on Wall St. No problem with the average American because he is no different to the average Australia or the average Canadian. Have the utmost respect for American farmers ... so as I was saying ethanol is the least of your problems right now. You should be thankful it is leading to investment in the only sector of your economy that will generate significant export revenues.
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!


"the only sector of your economy that will generate significant export revenues"...WHAT NONSENSE! You're like so many self righteous types who can't see anything but what is right smack in their line of sight...Our country, is far away the largest in the world, producing more than 25% of global GDP...You are far too caught up in a commodity mentality and remind of folks in the early 70s who were Gold bugs...hmm, I saw gold over $800 in the early 70s...it has taken over 30 years to just back to that level.
dec
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Dec name me one non agricultural commodity or good the US produces that the Chinese can't produce (legally or illegally) for a tenth of the cost? Patents are worthless. For someone with so much market experience the more you learn it appears the less you really know. Greed was your undoing Dec. I do feel pity for your ilk because in time you'll realise you were betrayed by the system you thought would always protect you. You'll feel like the fat kid who always got picked last at school to play a team sport. Farmers know how to go without. Do you?
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!
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quote:
Originally posted by Nuffield
[br]Dec name me one non agricultural commodity or good the US produces that the Chinese can't produce (legally or illegally) for a tenth of the cost? Patents are worthless. For someone with so much market experience the more you learn it appears the less you really know. Greed was your undoing Dec. I do feel pity for your ilk because in time you'll realise you were betrayed by the system you thought would always protect you. You'll feel like the fat kid who always got picked last at school to play a team sport. Farmers know how to go without. Do you?
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!


More nonsense from resentful Aussie..."greed was your undoing"? I am having a near record year, thank you very much. The U.S. is the technological and intellectual property leader by far. The worlds leading pharmaceuticals are here in the U.S. and though challenged, the financial services industry is dominated by U.S. concerns. Yes the stock market has been hit hard, but not nearly as much as many of the indexes elsewhere...not the least of which is right there in Asia-Pacific. I think you're so resentful and a one trick pony it is laughable.
dec
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World Economic Forum global competitiveness index
GENEVA, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The following are highlights of
the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index.
The 2008 index, published on Wednesday, ranks 134 economies
by how competitive they are based on economic data and a survey
of business executives.
Number in brackets shows previous year's ranking.
(For a story on the index click on [ID:nL7181290])
1. United States (1)
2. Switzerland (2)
3. Denmark (3)
4. Sweden (4)
5. Singapore (7)
6. Finland (6)
7. Germany (5)
8. Netherlands (10)
9. Japan (8)
10. Canada (13)
11. Hong Kong (12)
12. Britain (9)
13. South Korea (11)
14. Austria (15)
15. Norway (16)
16. France (18)
17. Taiwan (14)
18. Australia (19)
19. Belgium (20)
20. Iceland (23)
21. Malaysia (21)
23. Israel (17)
26. Qatar (31)
27. Saudi Arabia (35)
28. Chile (26)
30. China (34)
32. Estonia (27)
36. Tunisia (32)
45. South Africa (44)
49. Italy (46)
50. India (48)
51. Russia (58)
55. Indonesia (54)
60. Mexico (52)
63. Turkey (53)
64. Brazil (72)
67. Greece (65)
70. Vietnam (68)
81. Egypt (77)
88. Argentina (85)
93. Kenya (99)
94. Nigeria (95)
133. Zimbabwe (129)
134. Chad (131)
(For the full World Economic Forum report click on:
http://www.weforum.org/GCR0809_Browser )
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obviously they did not go to Wal-Mart or ORielly auto parts store.
Changed the oil in my wife's car the other eve. Noticed the new tires she got the other day at our local mom and pop tire shop said "Made in China". Suppose most things the Chinese buy says USA?
This survey must have been conducted by Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.
Or maybe the CEO's of freddie and fannie with imput from Chuckels Shummer (sp) of New Yuck.
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The 12 items factored into the rankings are:
1. Institutions
2. Infrastructure
3. Macroeconomic stability
4. Health and primary education
5. Higher education and training
6. Good market efficiency
7. Labor market efficiency
8. Financial market sophistication
9. Technological readiness
10. Market size
11. Business sophistication
12. Innovation
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Lets just hope the financial institution you have your record wealth stowed away in is immune from the run on US banks which lies ahead?
You've never seen an agriculture boom like the one you're about to!
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So Dec, How long do we have? When will the last drop of ethonal be squeezed out? this year? next Year? 5 years? What will this fuel be replaced with? Apple juice? wine ? coal? Or do we go in and crush Kuwait and take there oil? Or will we cut back enough we won't need this fuel? Maybe when the Oil companys take over these ethonal plants, there will suddenly be an amaizing discovery of ethonal being a very efficiant fuel, could happen! Just so many questions and no answers.
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quote:
Originally posted by Old Jed
[br]So Dec, How long do we have? When will the last drop of ethonal be squeezed out? this year? next Year? 5 years? What will this fuel be replaced with? Apple juice? wine ? coal? Or do we go in and crush Kuwait and take there oil? Or will we cut back enough we won't need this fuel? Maybe when the Oil companys take over these ethonal plants, there will suddenly be an amaizing discovery of ethonal being a very efficiant fuel, could happen! Just so many questions and no answers.


Put simply, ethanol has never amounted to more than small % of our liquid fuels market...thus far and year to date, gasoline consumption is down more than 5% and headed lower...that works out to well in excess than 7 bil gal...the whole ethanol scam was about rigging and special interest...it will unfortunately hang around, but the momentum of growth is history. Point: ethanol production capacity is radically more than demand will ever be.
dec
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Hey Dec this ethanol thing is the fraction of the cost to the taxpayer as this big bailout.
You should have 10 times the posts about it versus ethanol.
I have always take a grain salt with everything you post. It's hard to trust your ideas knowing you are lobbying for big oil, feeders etc.
Not trying to disrespect you, just trying to tell you how you come off.
I never said ethanol was the final answer. But it is a % that is taken out of the big pie of oil. Corn being 2 dollars wass bull****, and you know it. If ethanol drove it to 4 dollars, it was well worth it. Easy to trash on ethanol Dec, but it takes a man of thoughfullness to present solutions.
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Never mind Dec, he is kind of a quack on this subject.(He was dead on about VSE management however.)
Who wouldn't want to take a product valued at roughly $3.80 a bushel process 70% of it ($2.66 worth) into 2.9-3.0 gallons of motor fuel that when blended @ less than 20% with gasoline is worth transportation costs less than gas ($1.96). $2.66 into $5.22, what is not to like for consumers.
If you want to know about Dec, find out why he shows up on so many of the Anwar drilling support rolls. I'm sure it isn't altruism that puts him there!
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]Never mind Dec, he is kind of a quack on this subject.(He was dead on about VSE management however.)
Who wouldn't want to take a product valued at roughly $3.80 a bushel process 70% of it ($2.66 worth) into 2.9-3.0 gallons of motor fuel that when blended @ less than 20% with gasoline is worth transportation costs less than gas ($1.96). $2.66 into $5.22, what is not to like for consumers.
If you want to know about Dec, find out why he shows up on so many of the Anwar drilling support rolls. I'm sure it isn't altruism that puts him there!
ANWR, you mean...what in the world are you inferring, that I would work for the petroleum business? What nonsense! I am not sure where you come with your calculations, but its too funny...fairly clear you don't know much about the ethanol business...I do. My God man, not one dime, not a single dime has been made in this fiasco for ethanol investors these past two years...too much capacity, period.


dec
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Grainbelt: I agree. It appears dec is a paid hack for
Big Oil/OPEC. But, you will see my name on those ANWR roles
too, and I am the biggest supporter of ethanol there is.
lol.
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Latest DTN Ethanol News
Gateway Ethanol Files Chapter 11
Gateway Ethanol has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. DTN has found
just five ethanol bankruptcies documented in the media and/or in court records
since 2007.
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I'll try to "dumb" down the math and walk you through a very simple calculation Dec.
$5.58 Ethanol price (@ your favorite source CBOT) X3 gal bu
+ $1.15 DDDGS valueu of corn
-------
$ 6.73
($ 3.96) National Corn Index (before tonights decline)
--------
$ 2.77 For processing, salaries, interest, and depreciation
How is this a bad deal for consumers.......
You talk A LOT you know little.
Do you deny being on the supporter lists for drilling in ANWR....
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quote:
Originally posted by 48
[br]Grainbelt: I agree. It appears dec is a paid hack for
Big Oil/OPEC. But, you will see my name on those ANWR roles
too, and I am the biggest supporter of ethanol there is.
lol.


48,
I too am in favor of drilling in the Arctic (and anywhere else for that matter). I would expect you to be on the rolls for altruistic reasons. Dec has this incredible hangup on Ethanol and I would suspect from the little I know of him there would be a motive to his interest in ANWR more than bringing more oil on line. Oh well, different strokes for different folks I guess. Nothing wrong with being procon any particular interest, spreading misleading or completely false premises is different though.
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]I'll try to "dumb" down the math and walk you through a very simple calculation Dec.
$5.58 Ethanol price (@ your favorite source CBOT) X3 gal bu
+ $1.15 DDDGS valueu of corn
-------
$ 6.73
($ 3.96) National Corn Index (before tonights decline)
--------
$ 2.77 For processing, salaries, interest, and depreciation
How is this a bad deal for consumers.......
You talk A LOT you know little.
Do you deny being on the supporter lists for drilling in ANWR....


Nonsense...ethanol margins are puny and mostly negative. Talk about generalization...your variable expense numbers are just that...hocus/pocus. Your 3 gal of production per bu, is pie in the sky, and your ddg number is suspect...You don't get it...the industry is imploding in front of your very eyes, and yet you deny it. I don't recall signing on to ANWR support site, but what if I did...Of course, I support drilling on ANWR, you don't?
Mostly, I think you are one jealous money manager...I will gladly avail you to my proprietary record and our fund, is up almost 38% ytd. I am the strategist for the CTA that manages a $300 mil program...Hell, Grainbelt...I have invited you to contact me. You'll find me refreshing and I'll probably learn some from you, too. What do you have to lose?
dec
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My numbers are dead on and you know it! The newer facilities are all doing 3 galu, a 2.8 gal facility is only doing 37 cents less on the net. The avg. selling price of ddgs is $135 on. I take great offense that you question my numbers and offer nothing to dispute them outside of opinion. You offer nothing but hyperbole and name calling, while claiming you are correct and others are wrong. VSE is going down, because of terrible management not that a producer is unable to cover variable costs.
Why on earth would I be jealous of you Dec. I am doing great in the face of one of the 5 worst bear markets since 1929. I think most of the time you are a fruitcake, why would I need info from you......
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Grainbelt: After seeing the way dec treated OBG and mfsman,
I think the more appropriate question is: What do you
have to gain??? Answer: Absolutely nothing. What do you
have to lose??? Well...if there are any bones in your
closet (or trash can), you will be reading all about it
right here!!! lol.
Let me put this another way. Have you ever seen dec say
anything nice about anyone--ever??? lol. Not very good
odds. lol.
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]

quote:
Originally posted by dec
[br]
quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]
quote:
Originally posted by dec
[br]
quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]Removal of the blenders credit and the import tariff would
be a good thing as far a I am concerned. The mandate
is both effective and needed. I am far less conflicted
than you are dec.
Money flows from those in our business had far more to
do with the bubble of corn price to $6,$7, or $8 than
biofuels did. I don't suppose you would accuse biofuels
of being responsible for $147 oil would you.....


Conflicted? Hardly...I am a taxpayer and a big one at that, so to that extent I conflicted...YOu can imagine what you choose, but the bottom line is this, without ethanol the price rise would have been puny. You're fighting a dead horse on this one...the party is over. You can try to rationalize profit margins on per bu, which no one in the ethanol business looks at that way...instead on per gal basis...you can think that today's ethanol plants convert at 3:1 and that is just plain silly, its not. The ethanol business couldn't make money at 147 dlr crude and its not making money at 79 dlr crude...The long/short of it is that ethanol is simply government attempt at rigging usage, but its not succeeding too well...I saw it early and was the main force in getting my group to blow our holdings to Marathon, held nose and all...All you folks who are pro-ethanol should be asking yourselves, for what constructive purpose has been served here? Surely not serious energy alternative, surely the ethanol companies themselves are bleeding to death and with them all those limited partners fleeced by hyperbole and politicians and feel good nonsense from local pols AND, the corn growers got the spoils...What a joke.
dec


Not conflicted.....You are without a doubt the most conflicted poster on this site when it comes to this subject. You have backed yourself into a position without any way of removing yourself from it. You are a friggin fool, what would it matter if you figure margins on bushels or gallons it all comes back the same, you quack. ALL ethanol plants built in the last 2-3 years do over 2.8. You are one kooky fellow Dec, and you wonder why I wouldn't want to contact you. Goodbye.
Time to quit fooling with this board anyhow. Boggles my mind how anyone so stupid could claim himself to be a so smart.


Well, well Mr so wise (you think the mandate is good public policy)...Well, you are wrong on the conversions, as few if any plants are operating 3 to 1...complete b.s. So you think I'm stupid...let's see, i called this fiasco a long time ago and the proof is in the pudding. Its a sick business. I defy you to show me any sustainable profitability in this industry...they don't exist. They are grinding through stock holders equity and working capital month after month...are they not? If so, show me those who are? They don't exist. If you want to compare trading acumen, you are welcomed to do just that...I will await an inquiry. Seriously, I have attempted to forewarn folks of the hucksters in this field and am indeed sad for the millions that have been fleeced from unsuspecting folks...truly sad.
dec


You are a flat out weird dude.
I don't see myself contacting some quack from Lincoln to compare anything. I know of nothing that a guy with a BA from Nebraska who spent the majority of his life as a commodity broker has to offer but whatever pal. I'm sure you have great trading acumen, I have done very well myself thank you. As far as taxes paid, I am fairly certain we pay more than you make. As I said before, Goodbye.


Oh really, Mr Elitist...well unless you have average more than $20 mil in income last three years, I doubt you have paid more in taxes...want to bet? I am the chief strategist for a $300 mil CTA, what about you? Want to compare records? I thought so.
dec
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quote:
Originally posted by 48
[br]Grainbelt: mfsman and jabber have asked you to stay and
so am I. You are one of the most intelligent posters on
this site, and your input would be sorely missed. I
sincerely hope that you will re-consider and keep posting.
Thank you!


48,
Thank you as well for the kind words. I will likely be back. However, I will probably keep my postings to the Money & Markets section. That is the reason I came here a couple of years ago anyhow. Hell, when I showed up here I hardly cared whether ethanol was made or not......
Thanks again, and good luck with the rest of your harvest.
Grainbelt
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]

quote:
Originally posted by 48
[br]Grainbelt: mfsman and jabber have asked you to stay and
so am I. You are one of the most intelligent posters on
this site, and your input would be sorely missed. I
sincerely hope that you will re-consider and keep posting.
Thank you!


48,
Thank you as well for the kind words. I will likely be back. However, I will probably keep my postings to the Money & Markets section. That is the reason I came here a couple of years ago anyhow. Hell, when I showed up here I hardly cared whether ethanol was made or not......
Thanks again, and good luck with the rest of your harvest.
Grainbelt


Well, that's good...explain to everyone how great an investment the ethanol patch has been? There's a reason why the industry continues to fall short of expectations....nobody can sustain profitability producing this political scam and inferior water laced laugher of a product. Name them....? The don't exist.
dec
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There are plants making money. Most are private and there annual reports they will not make public. You don't have to go very far in farm country to find people that have made 3-4 times ROI and still own the stock at a higher price. I bet if you really looked hard and tried you could get your hands on some good info. I think you will be shocked at the price most are actually paying for their corn... Also what they are actually getting for ethanol and DDG's.
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Sorry, Grainbelt, no deceit. When you see evil you have to stare it straght in the face and defeat it. This world is overcome with evil and I think you are attempting to fight it. We all need to stand up for what we believe. He wants to talk to you because he wants to extract something from you. I know you came to OBG's site when first started and we welcomed your participation for the intelligence you share. This is about us and not "him". We need to worry about each other and you share a lot. Compete in every venue in ideas. We all do not agree but we share what we believe and care. Continue to post in everything you have an interest. I was going to get on fuels as had a good talk with friend at conference in Knoxville for clean fuels. Great stress is being made to cellulosic ethanol. UT has $100 mln. grant for development. We were talking about switch grass and basically grown in Everglades. He told me it similar to Johnson Grass, the bane to crop production discounts. He was talking about seeding. It is so far removed from production it is laughable. They have 700# rolls that probably cost more for transportation than energy derived. We have problems at work and everyone else is to blame and no common cause or condition. People wanted to know why I wanted to move to Costa Rica? We have a world at risk and noone with the balls to perceive the future but just what happens to us.
Thank you very much
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Dec: about a week ago you had a coulple of good posts, what happened?
This full moon time of month got you too?
I liked last weeks dec better.
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quote:
Originally posted by gmart
[br]There are plants making money. Most are private and there annual reports they will not make public. You don't have to go very far in farm country to find people that have made 3-4 times ROI and still own the stock at a higher price. I bet if you really looked hard and tried you could get your hands on some good info. I think you will be shocked at the price most are actually paying for their corn... Also what they are actually getting for ethanol and DDG's.


I am all ears and eyes...I have long said that those invested in early stage of the scam made a windfall, but any money invested in last two years is a loser...prove me wrong if you can.
dec
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Dec, I really do not think anyone cares what you have because you do not share anything with anyone. You are a bit self absorbed and think you need to address that than everyone else. What I say will not change your behavior but maybe you will reflect on your response for indication given to others. Life is about much more than money and personal gain. I say that in true respect for what you think is important in life.
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Man i am glad dec pays plenty of taxes, must have a real winner for a tax man, with Obamamama leading 15% in the polls, looks like dec will get to pay alot more.
I went to college for the specific purpose of avoiding taxes I figured I could become rich, if I could just avoid taxes. Some people just never learn, the more they make the less they make.
I had a doctor client call me from Washington DC and asked me if he could purchase a ferrari for $100K and wanted to know if he could write it off, in the 70's we had a 75% tax bracket, Uncle Sam paid for 75% of that car in tax refunds. He has a collection of them now. So dec will get an opportunity to utilize his 75% tax bracket that he will be in, to subsidize his purchases for business.
Farming is the best way to shelter income I ever found, as long as you can keep expanding, you can keep avoiding tax, it is when you stop expanding that it bites you in the a$$.
I will sleep alot better at night now knowing that I will continue to avoid the big tax hits, and dec will be paying my share. With the tax laws that are coming, we will be back in the 70's, where the more you make the less you make.
Tomorrow is the last day to file extended individual tax returns, I have been burning the midnight oil the past few nights finishing up my small group of tax clients that I filed extensions for. Will be glad to get out of here, and back to gods country..
Have a great day. John
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DEC- ethanol is a numbers game. Just go and calculate
the current crush margin or use one of many spreadsheets available
developed by many of the ag colleges to calculute the current
ROI. Think us corn farmers don't watch this? When corn was
close to $8 bu, I looked at every week to see where there
breakeven was since it changes on a daily basis. The price
of oil has nothing to due with ethanol breakevens. It is based
on rack price of ethanol, this is the only thing that matters,
along with the price of inputs and the price of DDG that
is also sold. This is not a child's game,use the tools/formulas/spreadsheets to calculate the ROI.
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Jabber- interesting post, even my kids know feed conversion ratios.
Perhaps,Jam can pick up something I picked up at the Iowa State
Fair in August about weight gain in livestock on DDG.
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JAM: I'm busy with harvest and can not keep up. In your
usual condescending, arrogant, egotistical diatribe, you
said: "...seed salesman and engineer without a degree..."
FYI, the seed company that jabber works for requires it's
sales people to be Certified Crop Advisors. And, just what's
wrong with being a seed salesman??? Is that beneath your
dignity???
Personally, I would rather be an engineer without a degree
from either Texas A&M University or the University of
Michigan than a lawyer WITH a degree from Podunk University.
lol. Best.
[/b]

JAM: You know...if our NET farm income was really so high,
maybe jabber would not have to supplement his NET farm
income by being a seed salesman! On the other hand, he
may be an over achiever...you know... the opposite of you!
lol. Best.
[/b]

JAM: BTW, do you really grow roses???
[/b]

quote:
Originally posted by IA CORN FARMER
[br]Jabber- interesting post, even my kids know feed conversion ratios.
Perhaps,Jam can pick up something I picked up at the Iowa State
Fair in August about weight gain in livestock on DDG.


Yep, and so far the best response that dec and JAM seem to dredge up is that I am "a seed corn saleman". Sorry for the clutter but "inquirin' minds want to know" if they actually have a quality answer to the above. (the maximum impact of changing corn prices on the costs to produce livestock and livestock products).
High corn prices can put very much pressure on profit margins for those in the livestock industry. The adjustments in wholesale and retail prices needed to offset these added costs are pretty small.
Over time, wholesale and retail prices do adjust to changes in the cost of production.
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]I wonder how vocal some of the critics of ethanol on this particular message board would have been had the policy been implemented slightly differently. Leave the mandate as it is but instead of giving the blenders a tax credit, take an equal dollar amount and give a tax credit to the livestock producing industry. In the current calendar year with a mandate of 9 bgals, take the total mass of red meat production and give each producer their percentage of the $4.5 billion in tax credits based on their production. I am by NO MEANS advocating this scenario, just a little food for thought.......


Grainbelt- as always- Interesting thoughts. When considering the current location of US ethanol production, who controls the fuel infrastructure, and the ever changing price relationship between gasoline and ethanol. I would feel much better about the suggestion if we first had blending pumps and even more research on blended fuel in this country. To deliver the maximum fuel security benefits and the maximum fuel price benefits to the US consumer, the option to safely use and blend bio fuels at the retail outlet appear to be a necessity.
As an investor, you may want to closely watch the newest information that you can find on bio butanol. Some would suggest that the opportunity to make the cost of production of this product very close to the cost of ethanol production is not too far off.
Suggested Benefits-
-More BTUs per gallon.
-Bio Butanol can be put in a pipeline.
-Current ethanol production capacity can be modified to produce bio butanol.
Not sure how all will shake out but it certainly bears watching.
Search- Biobutanol 2008- and see what you think.
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff
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48,
I wouldn't doubt that Dec, off of these boards wouldn't be somewhat of an interesting fellow. I seriously doubt however, I ever take the time to find out.
No one in their right mind will dispute than ethanol margins haven't tanked in the past couple of years. Nor would anyone say that ethanol will make the US energy independant. But, to say that producing ethanol is a poor idea and doesn't deserve gov't assistance in the form of the mandate is cooky in my opinion.
Getting late out here in the Eastern time zones and tomorrow looks to be another interesting day.....time for bed.
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quote:
Originally posted by Grainbelt
[br]48,
I wouldn't doubt that Dec, off of these boards wouldn't be somewhat of an interesting fellow. I seriously doubt however, I ever take the time to find out.
No one in their right mind will dispute than ethanol margins haven't tanked in the past couple of years. Nor would anyone say that ethanol will make the US energy independant. But, to say that producing ethanol is a poor idea and doesn't deserve gov't assistance in the form of the mandate is cooky in my opinion.
Getting late out here in the Eastern time zones and tomorrow looks to be another interesting day.....time for bed.


Yes, producing ethanol is bad public policy...I wouldn't oppose it if it did not require mandates, tariffs, tax incentives, and special preferences...Under that it has caused indisputable market disruption and the natural users of grain horrible economic hard ship. As for "kooky"...I think its pretty clear now that clear headed see it for what it is, a political swamp. I have relentless criticized ethanol and have been proven correct...invest in and you will lose hard earned money.
dec
[/b]

dec, you are nothing but a blow hard....I tend to agree with your assessment more than disagree. The ethanol effort is still in our countries best interest as each gallon is one less that is funding those that want to do us harm.
What price does someone pay for security? A gated community? A body guard? Or is security only a state of mind....never achievable but something that all people rich or poor strive for.
You, sir, are simply out to lunch.
The majority or people and their family members are hurting like there is no tomorrow...and THEY will be heard....I feel for you as you like most will not escape what is going to possibly happen...
Ethanol has so little to do with it, and the folks that raise our corn are by and large not members of the organizations that pushed this issue.
You paint with a broad brush but it will eventually be found that folks like you are to a greater extent responsible for what is occurring now.
JMHO
[B)]
[/b]

quote:
Originally posted by Dave in MidMO
[br]dec, you are nothing but a blow hard....I tend to agree with your assessment more than disagree. The ethanol effort is still in our countries best interest as each gallon is one less that is funding those that want to do us harm.
What price does someone pay for security? A gated community? A body guard? Or is security only a state of mind....never achievable but something that all people rich or poor strive for.
You, sir, are simply out to lunch.
The majority or people and their family members are hurting like there is no tomorrow...and THEY will be heard....I feel for you as you like most will not escape what is going to possibly happen...
Ethanol has so little to do with it, and the folks that raise our corn are by and large not members of the organizations that pushed this issue.
You paint with a broad brush but it will eventually be found that folks like you are to a greater extent responsible for what is occurring now.
JMHO
[B)]


I am hardly out of touch...David, the ethanol scam has been a cruel hoax and has decimated small/large local investors...they have lost every single penny invested in the past two years. The corn lobby was the power behind the rigged game and for what? You say its displacing some crude oil equivalent...and to that I would agree, but at what cost to the livestock industry? In case you haven't noticed, the livestock business is in turmoil, exacerbated by artificially high grain prices. Further, the fake economic signal of ethanol promotion has created an illusion that has set up the corn belt for much tougher times. Its a shame.
dec
[/b]

Sooooooooooooo dec, just what would crop prices be tomorrow before the open if not for ethanol??????????? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??????
Corn?
Soybeans?
Wheat?
Rice(bio fuels musta caused a bubble in this one too)?
Cotton(yessiree, some guys think they have to grow something that is not edible (feed or food) on farmland that is capable of producing food/feed. How dare them? Shud we ban cotton too- in favor of feed and food grains, fruits, and veggies?????????)
Sugar? (might want to bring us up to date on what's happenin' with sugar in the Okachobee region in Fla?)
?????- your answers and prices above puuuuuuuuuuuleeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeee!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff
[/b]

quote:
Originally posted by jabber1
[br]Sooooooooooooo dec, just what would crop prices be tomorrow before the open if not for ethanol??????????? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??????
Corn?
Soybeans?
Wheat?
Rice(bio fuels musta caused a bubble in this one too)?
Cotton(yessiree, some guys think they have to grow something that is not edible (feed or food) on farmland that is capable of producing food/feed. How dare them? Shud we ban cotton too- in favor of feed and food grains, fruits, and veggies?????????)
Sugar? (might want to bring us up to date on what's happenin' with sugar in the Okachobee region in Fla?)
?????- your answers and prices above puuuuuuuuuuuleeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeee!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff


Are you finally admitting that ethanol distorts prices, and that w/o the policy prices for crops would be something different...?? Dah. Except for the conflicted, anyone with a brain can see what has happened.
dec
[/b]

quote:
Originally posted by dec
[br]

quote:
Originally posted by jabber1
[br]Sooooooooooooo dec, just what would crop prices be tomorrow before the open if not for ethanol??????????? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??????
Corn?
Soybeans?
Wheat?
Rice(bio fuels musta caused a bubble in this one too)?
Cotton(yessiree, some guys think they have to grow something that is not edible (feed or food) on farmland that is capable of producing food/feed. How dare them? Shud we ban cotton too- in favor of feed and food grains, fruits, and veggies?????????)
Sugar? (might want to bring us up to date on what's happenin' with sugar in the Okachobee region in Fla?)
?????- your answers and prices above puuuuuuuuuuuleeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeee!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff


Are you finally admitting that ethanol distorts prices, and that w/o the policy prices for crops would be something different...?? Dah. Except for the conflicted, anyone with a brain can see what has happened.
dec


Ohhhhhh buuuuuttttttttt dec, I never denied that ethanol was ONE of many factors in the rising prices of SOME ag commodities. Take a crack at the prices OR bow out on the tough questions as usual.
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff
[/b]

Dec, I am not just being contrary. I think it good to look at what the Republican Congress did with ethanol mandates. They thought they could lessen the price supports less than the cost of ethanol expansion. Ethanol was not the cause of grain price inflation. It contributed some. Crude is and has been the mantra for the value to everything other than productivity. I have a real bias tonight as received some info as to foreign interest who were not able to destroy the values of Bear Stearns, Lehman, Citi, Bank of America have jumped on value stocks to short them. They have destroyed confidence in system with behavior of congressional oversight. They will cover in a flash. We are not producing any more energy than last year and have a population which is continuing to increase. I do not want hyper inflation. I did not to freeze the credit markets of the world but our Congress did. We have had rather dramatic decrease in chick placements. We have had demand destruction but that is a less than constant number. I doubt people are eating less. How fast can they change broiler and poultry numbers around? Demand is the issue and much more than ethanol. Who has created poor policy? I did not do it or anyone that I ever voted. We are going to have a lot of fire sales with ethanol plants and curious if big oil will be buyers or foreign oil interests. I think you will see more incursion of foreign interests than US publicly traded companies. Farmers have not put us to risk and even some misguided ag policies, but corrupt politicians and a blind eye to self interest.
[/b]

quote:
Originally posted by jabber1
[br]

quote:
Originally posted by dec
[br]
quote:
Originally posted by jabber1
[br]Sooooooooooooo dec, just what would crop prices be tomorrow before the open if not for ethanol??????????? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??????
Corn?
Soybeans?
Wheat?
Rice(bio fuels musta caused a bubble in this one too)?
Cotton(yessiree, some guys think they have to grow something that is not edible (feed or food) on farmland that is capable of producing food/feed. How dare them? Shud we ban cotton too- in favor of feed and food grains, fruits, and veggies?????????)
Sugar? (might want to bring us up to date on what's happenin' with sugar in the Okachobee region in Fla?)
?????- your answers and prices above puuuuuuuuuuuleeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeee!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff


Are you finally admitting that ethanol distorts prices, and that w/o the policy prices for crops would be something different...?? Dah. Except for the conflicted, anyone with a brain can see what has happened.
dec


Ohhhhhh buuuuuttttttttt dec, I never denied that ethanol was ONE of many factors in the rising prices of SOME ag commodities. Take a crack at the prices OR bow out on the tough questions as usual.
Waaaaaadddddddddaaaaa Cuunnnntttttrrrryyy!!
(what a country!)
YakOV Smirnoff


"Bow out"...Oh my! I don't know what the price(s) would be, but they most likely would be lower. What's the point? I think what you inferring is that one of the reasons for ethanol was to raise prices...yea, no kidding!? Prices for corn and soybeans are still double 70-100% higher than just three years ago...Sure surging oil prices and now plunging had a lot to do with it, but diverting 1/3 of our domestic corn supply to ethanol was a false economic signal that would not have happened without the heavy hand of government. In the end, the markets have had their way in exposing the fault lines in this program...The ethanol producers, except for a brief period in the first stages where they had a windfall (mtbe phaseout and mandate requirement), can't make sustainable money...they were going under at $147 crude and they're bleeding at $80 crude. I have relentlessly attacked this scam and you have relentlessly supported it. I don't have a conflict of interest, but you do...and its understandable.
dec
[/b]

dec,
See how long some of the NEW, start ups in the crude
oil industry stay in business with the LOWER crude oil
prices. For you , "my friend", you might want to compare
some of todays movements to the later 1980's, when you
were still a little damp behing the ears?
[/b]

dec- if these companies and plants don't want this information going out to the general public what makes you think i would put it out there for them...? Why don't you try buying stock in some of these companies, then they are sure to send you there perspectus and annual reports. They are turning a REAL profit and not a wall street fudge the numbers profit. I think Faust made a good point about avoiding taxes and saving the money to your net worth... haha. Even the illegal immigrants got that one figured out.. [] I am sure you are no dummy as far as write offs, thats probably why you bought your jet along with other things. I am a little surprised with all the money you make your not living in SD..? Most people know thats the best place to base your bussiness out of. Are you trying to follow in the Oracle of Omaha's footsteps... seems like a good plan but big shoes to fill..
[/b]

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/articles/hof/HofJan08.html
Here is just one tool for tracking ethanol profitability.
My kid has other ones bookmarked in his computer, but he
is down in Des Moines, IA visiting his grandmother, since he
has a few vacation days from grade school. I have made it
his job to track this since he has shown interest now in
investments, and as mentioned, I gave him one share in the
local ethanol plant. Good to get kids interested in investments/
money at an early age. They feel ownership and they work harder.
There are a few things young boys/men should be taught, driving
trucks, equipment, motorcycles,ATV's, use of firearms, farm
chores,and accounting/numbers. Think he will learn all about
girls on his own, so will not do any teaching there. LOL
By the way, have internet access in my combine now,hooked
it up to the laptop. Taking a break, before the next pass, this
is a 320, so 1 mile. Could be dangerous, internet access, bright
lights/shadows, and 3 shots of boubon in the coffee.LOL
Good Luck on the harvest.
[/b]

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