Aussie wheat production

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Nuffield - Aussie wheat production Posted by: Erickson on 10/16/2007 8:31:44 AM
Nuffield, how is Australia's harvest coming. Is it still looking less than 10mmt, if so, then how much in stocks are left over from last year? I was confused by USDA's numbers and how they came up with exporting 9mm if you say that's all the wheat there is. Any insight you have would be greatly appreciated.
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ReplyReply Oz Wheat Posted by: Nuffield on 10/16/2007 7:38:17 PM
Harvest has still yet to begin in earnest. Certainly no wheat. There are producers to the west (supposedly the more reliable areas) of me who are banking on achieving 3t/ha wheat yields off 9 1/2 inche rainfall? Even with the best water use efficiency levels this is not possible. I've been lucky. Have had around 11 1/2 inches. My point being that many producers of wheat in the WA grainbelt will likely be disappointed when they put the combines in for harvest. Experience always tells us that grain yields are well down to what the crops look with dry finishes. Grain weights will likely be off. The whole of Australia has had a dry finish except for a few small production areas, eg Esperance region in WA, some parts of the Liverpool Plains in NSW. I am calling wheat to be under 10mmt this year in Australia. Our domestic consumption will likely drop back to around 6-7mmt for 2008 as there are many feedlotters dropping inventory like stones and they were all using wheat. Carryout from last year is a little unclear but needless to say it would be negligable. There has only been one bulk export license of 500,000t issued for 2008 and that will go to a flour mill in Indonesia owned by the exporting company, CBH. The USDA's numbers are wrong but I guess they need to be conservative. The other factor I think these markets have wrong about Australia is the high percentage of non wheat area in the regions that have received productive rains particularly in WA (where all the exportable surplus for any grain will come from). There is a hell of a lot of oaten hay in for export fodder markets. Plenty of canola and plenty of barley. The Federal Govt's failure to deregulate wheat markets this year encouraged graingrowers particularly in WA to plant as much of anything but wheat they could. In the marginal areas where drought has hit hardest the story was completely the opposite. Wall to wall cereals and probably 80% wheat. So Australia will once again be out of the bulk wheat export market for 2008. There will only be containerized exports
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ReplyReply Thanks for the update Posted by: Erickson on 10/17/2007 8:16:57 AM
Nuffield, thanks for the update. I'm looking for a spot to go long around $8.00, hopefully, I haven't missed the boat yet.
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ReplyReply Nuffield - just checking in Posted by: Erickson on 10/26/2007 2:44:44 PM
Nuffield - haven't heard any posts from you in awhile. Wondering how things are going in Australia. Is the rain starting to damage what's left of the crops and/or is it still looking like under 10mmt? I'm contemplating going long in wheat, but it's not looking too promising anymore, especially with the chart formations.
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